India could gain $112 billion annually by 2050 through investment in AMR treatment and antibiotic access: CGD

India could generate annual economic gains of $112 billion by 2050 through a targeted investment of $13.6 billion to expand access to innovative antibiotics and high-quality antimicrobial resistance (AMR) treatment, according to new research released by the Center for Global Development (CGD). The projected return on investment stands at 21:1.

The research accompanies the launch of an interactive tool by CGD, designed to estimate the economic impact of AMR under multiple policy and investment scenarios across 122 countries. The model considers variables including health system costs, labour force dynamics, and sectoral impacts.

In a scenario where India undertakes this investment, the CGD estimates suggest the country could save $18 billion annually in health system costs. In addition, the labour force could increase by 0.8 per cent, tourism could grow by 3.7 per cent, and the hospitality sector could expand by 0.9 per cent by 2050.

These economic and public health gains are contingent on coordinated global action. According to CGD, “These benefits will only be realised if all countries take steps to increase access to new antibiotics and high-quality treatment of AMR.”

The findings are underpinned by a related 2024 study, which found that a global investment of $63 billion per year to improve access to and development of new antimicrobials could yield global economic benefits exceeding $1.7 trillion annually by 2050.

Conversely, the tool also models a scenario where India fails to control AMR progression. If AMR rates rise in line with the historical trends of a country in the 15th percentile, India could face an economic loss of $21 billion beyond the cost of maintaining current resistance levels. This scenario also predicts a $5 billion cost to the health system and negative impacts on the labour force and sectors such as tourism and hospitality by 2050.

The CGD’s research adds to a growing body of economic modelling that underscores the financial risks of inaction on AMR and highlights the potential long-term gains of investment in diagnostics, antibiotics, and healthcare infrastructure focused on resistant infections.